Martingale manual system (Safe martingale trading method)

Forex Martingale Strategy

Forex Martingale Strategy
My name is Marek Hawk and I am a professional trader of Horizon Trading team. For today’s article we selected a controversial topic often discussed in trading community, it is the Martingale trading system. Would you be interested in a trading strategy that is virtually 100% profitable? Many finds this system as gambler’s tool with high risk exposure and they do not think about starting with the Martingale at all. But the Martingale strategy is based on probability theory, and if your pockets are deep enough, it has a near 100% success rate.
Does it really work? Is it possible to win always in the end? Let’s find out!

How Martingale Works

The Martingale system is a simple process that involves doubling your bets after a loss. The idea is that if you can make a trade that offers probabilities, you eventually win and make enough money on the win to cover all your previous losses, and have a profit left over equal to your first bet.
The Martingale is a mechanism of placing double bet in case of loss.
A martingale strategy relies on the theory of mean reversion. In the end you should win at some time, the theory says, and you should make a profit. Let’s look at mechanics of the martingale system.

Examples of the Martingale Strategy

Let’s assume trading strategy which works with 1:1 risk-reward ratio and initial risk for first trade is 100 $. Your initial account balance is 10 000 USD.

https://preview.redd.it/43szidw2w9b31.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=443f0d0f241e73e094ae197636ca5ad83a184cb5
First trade was speculation on growth and your long trade worked out. In another situation you found an interesting entry level to open the new long trade, but the speculation did not work out and you are back to the initial bankroll value. Next trade you needed to double your risk and you needed to open a larger position to cover the previous loss and to gain profit. Unfortunately, you suffered another loss and you had to double your risk again to 400 $. Next trade you won, and your equity raised to 10 200 $.
The problem with the Martingale is the situation when you get a long streak of losing trades. You must always double your risk and in the end your last trade in the row could be huge portion of the capital, and you can be still wrong…

Money Management of the Martingale System

While the Martingale System seems like a fantastic way to make money by trading, it’s not a good solution in case of money management. In pure mathematical terms the system is bulletproof, however, in the reality of the trading world it’s full of problems. The main issue with the Martingale is that it requires an extremely large capital. Let’s look how you would carry on with the system with your equity of 12 200 $ in case of losing streak.

https://preview.redd.it/rfk9vaa4w9b31.png?width=551&format=png&auto=webp&s=43662d8b5bde4f6495dee7cdb66756f6165483d6
With initial trade which was less than 1 % of your capital, you suffered 6 losses with the Martingale system, and you are done. It is not possible to continue with doubling your risk as you run out your capital for next trade and you end up with the drawdown -6 300 $, more than 60 % from the peak of equity! Because of this reason, it is necessary before putting the Martingale system into the real world, to know statistical attributes of your trading system. You can use useful mathematical and statistical applications, like MATLAB, and run statistical simulations, like Monte Carlo, which are widely used in trading industry. You need to know a precise output of your strategy in matters of your risk and money management!

Example of Monte Carlo analysis and the equity of various scenarios of the Martingale Strategy. For gaining more than 50 %, the system had to overcome even negative results. The account would be wiped out many times.

Usual equities of robust trading system simulated by Monte Carlo analysis.

Trading Forex with the Martingale

One of the reasons the Martingale strategy is so popular in the currency market is because, unlike stocks, currencies tend to go back to their mean. Although companies in term of probabilities can bankrupt more often, countries cannot. For example, even if currency is devalued or depreciated, the chances that currency's value reaches zero are very low.

Principle of averaging the price of the Martingale trading strategy.
The forex market also offers the ability to earn interest which allows traders to offset a portion of their losses with interest income. This means that a martingale trader may want to only trade the strategy on currency pairs in the direction of positive carry. In other words, they would buy a currency with a high interest rate and earn that interest while, at the same time, selling a currency with a low interest rate. With many lots, interest income can be very substantial and could work to reduce your average entry price.

Conclusion

In this article I described principles of the Martingale trading strategy. The system may look like a perfect winning system; however, it carries huge risk exposure of your capital. A trader needs to be prepared to work on professional money management techniques in case of building working Martingale system. I gave you some hints which tools can help managing this mathematical trading system. I described the examples of trading the Martingale trading techniques on forex markets.
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What's your view of copy-trading? Can it be used for a steady income?

EDIT:

I opened 6 €100 copytrading accounts two weeks ago. €20 return so far. But now a drawdown of more than €40. Martingale-alert. More details here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/8iudxx/whats_your_view_of_copytrading_can_it_be_used_fodz0l2wd/?context=10
I shut it all down except one and plan to invest in classic funds instead.
I want to trade in any case. But trading for a living is hard, e.g. pressure leads to bad decisions.

Theory

Hypothetically:
  • If you pick good traders (and they get some of your resulting winnings, so they have strong incentive not to collapse, cause this will make people leave, and new ones will see the painful dents and not join)
  • and you limit your max. drawdown (auto-pause the copy-trading and send email)
  • and you limit your risk (less growth, but also less loss, thereby more reliably manifesting the upwards-probability of those traders; smoothing the curve but making it less steep)
... you should be able to put a large enough amount of money in, and that's all you need for a steady good income. Any additional money could be used for your own trading. And of course put some aside.

Practice

One week of data - crassly insufficient. But better than nothing.
  • I opened 5 copy-trading investment accounts, €100 each. Like I said above, I defined max drawdown and limited the risk/win to half.
  • After 1 week, these are the results: €+9.62 $+1.15 $-4.17 $+9.61 $-0.26 = $15.95 (Ignoring the higher value of the euro position.)
MORE data is needed. And after a while, I should pick different ones, except for those who were good to me.
$16/$600 (€500) = ~2.7%
There will be better traders. There will be better phases. There will be worse phases, but no total loss of capital as that's absolutely excluded.
So, conservatively speaking: Let's say 2% growth per week. Let's throw $20,000 at this. That's $400 per week. And assuming you're not otherwise naked, that will grow your capital, so your copy-trading income will grow accordingly.
Excessive capital can be used to trade yourself.

Question

What is your position on copy-trading?
Yes, there are scams / fake accounts out there, e.g. non-verified myfxbook.com accounts (Btw., is betrayal still possible even with completely verified/public accounts? How? Can it be avoided?), but there's also legit ones. E.g. I'm with a trading service ("Broker"?) that not only has trading accounts but also copy traders, it's all a closed system, so if the broker is legit, then there's no way that the data based on which I pick those traders is untrue.
So, ignoring the problem of picking legit traders: WHAT is your opinion? Good? Bad? Unconditionally to be avoided because XYZ?
submitted by king_of_the_universe to Forex [link] [comments]

Martingale Theory part 2 Martingale Theory part1 Martingale Decision Theory Martingale Betting System Martingale Strategy Probabilistic Program Analysis using Martingale Theory 49. Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies ... #Binary Option Trading How To Use Martingale Theory On IQ Option Platform

Oddly enough – the theory of probability, the one that promises victory for fans of gambling and allows you to build the most unusual assumptions. The work of sweepstakes in the world of sports is actually based on it. It is used by the most successful forex traders. And millions of people every day are convinced that the Martingale strategy is paying off. How to play without losing? The ... Here is why: In the Martingale forex system, YOU have an advantage. 1 st of all, you are able to pick your entry. If you are choosing to begin a Martingale, you will be Buying low and Selling high. If you would choose to wait until the market goes 250 pips away from you before you double the position and re-target 250, the Market would have to go FIVE THOUSAND pips against you with ZERO ... Forex Trading The Martingale Way - Forex strategies 2020 on Forex-Ratings.com ... This strategy is based on probability theory and if your pockets are deep enough, it has a near 100% success rate. Known in the trading world as the martingale, this strategy was most commonly practiced in the gambling halls of Las Vegas casinos and is the main reason why casinos now have betting minimums and ... The Martingale way of trading forex, in theory works. However, for this to happen, traders need to have an unlimited equity, which is something that doesn’t quite work in the real world. Using Martingale (or doubling down) within your analysis. While the pure martingale trading system is something that is not advisable for equities of less than $5000, the approach of doubling down can be ... In theory, it all seems to be a funny and a profitable game. However, a casino puts a limit on the maximum bet. Besides, if you double your initial bet of $1 every time, it will increase up to $1024 in no time and up to $1 million in the near future. No one casino will allow you placing such a big bet. I doubt if you take so much money with yourself. But forex broker allow placing such a big ... Martingale trading systems are very popular in Forex automated trading because it’s quite easy to create an expert advisor that would look interesting and attractive using martingale. A system developer can back-test his martingale idea on an optimal history to show charming results, and with a bit of luck, he can even show equally charming forward results for a number of weeks or months ... Grid, Martingale, and Hedging are three of the most used strategies by Forex Expert Advisors as well as for manual trading. Different variants of Grids, Martingale and Hedging have been used by automated trading systems in recent years to produce consistent profits for traders who use them. This article aims to explain the nitty-gritty of the three concepts in an easy to understand fashion. A martingale strategy relies on the theory of mean reversion. Without a plentiful supply of money to obtain positive results, you need to endure missed trades that can bankrupt an entire account. It’s also important to note that the amount risked on the trade is far higher than the potential gain. Despite these drawbacks, there are ways to improve the martingale strategy that can boost your ... Forex Tools. Pivot Points Calculator; Fibonacci Calculator; Pip Value Calculator; Position Size Calculator; Risk & Reward Calculator; Gain and Loss Percentage Calculator; Interest Rates Table ; MT4 VPS Hosting; Forex Strategies; Elliott Wave Videos; Report Analysis Tool; Spread Betting Size Calculator · Forex Books. Forex Books for Beginners; General Market Books; Trading Psychology; Money ... The theory behind a Martingale strategy is pretty simple. It is a negative progression system that involves increasing your position size following a loss. Specifically, it involves doubling up your trading size when you lose. The classic scenario for a Martingale progression is trying to trade an outcome where there is a 50% probability of it occurring. Such a scenario has zero expectation.

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Martingale Theory part 2

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